Showing posts with label Sean O.. Show all posts

Monday, February 10, 2014

To Tank or not to Tank

The lack of talent in the Eastern Conference, coupled with the loaded draft class has found most NBA teams fighting not for first place, but for last. The same can be said for my favorite team, the Boston Celtics. I find myself torn between wanting them to play well, and wanting them to be awful so they can get a top draft pick come summer.


With the top prizes of the draft Jabari Parker of Duke, and Joel Embiid of Kansas considering potentially staying in school for another year; and no guarantee of the worst record giving them the top pick, it makes me hesitant.


So lets assume that both of these guys do leave school after just one year and head to the draft, what do the Celtics have to do to place themselves in a position to grab one of these young studs to build around? Currently, at 18-34, the Celtics find themselves with the 6th worst record and a 6.3% chance of winning the top pick in the lottery. However there are a handful of teams within a game or two of the Celtics which could see them sway anywhere from ninth to third worst. But with still half a season to go and All Star point guard Rajon Rondo beginning to find his rhythm after missing a year following surgery on his torn ACL the Celtics might be too good for their own good. 

Nothing is worse then finding yourself in the middle of the pack in the top heavy NBA. Being consistently average in a bad conference can be the kiss of death to a franchise. The same bad teams always seem to find their way to the bottom of the standings despite getting top picks year in and year out, so being only slightly better then them leaves you little chance of getting the building blocks needed to turn an OK team into a contender. That is why I agree with Danny Ainge's tactics of shipping out the house and starting from scratch with a few key pieces.

One of those pieces he has been keen on keeping up until recently has been 6'9" forward Jeff Green. Green is a physical freak who is capable of stuffing the stat sheet on a good night. His issue is that those good nights are few and far between. For instance, on January 22, he had a monster game carrying the shorthanded C's to victory against a talented Wizards team with 39 points in a 113-111 overtime thriller. However the next 4 games saw his performance consistently dip with a low of 6 points just days after almost scoring 40. And this isn't the first time it has happened to him either. For someone so gifted, he seems to become disinterested and lacks the killer instinct necessary to be the main scoring option that he is required to be on this Celtics team. 



He could be really good as a third or fourth option on a good team, and following a miserable 8 point night on 2-13 shooting a week ago against a terrible Orlando Magic team, he has had 3 very good games including a 36 point effort against the 76ers. Maybe now is the time for Ainge to sell high on Green with the trade deadline looming. Get the most out of him and his ridiculous contract while they still can, because he makes them too good to be bad enough to win in the draft lottery.

Friday, January 3, 2014

Is the Cutlet really worth it?

I have two sets of numbers for you.  The first is 1 and 1  in the playoffs over 8 years, and the second is $153 million with $54 million guaranteed. Those are Jay Cutler's career playoff record, and the terms of his brand new contract. Cutler has a career record of 56 and 48, a measly 8 games over .500. He has 137 combined turnovers and over 200 sacks compared to his 155 career touchdown passes.



Many experts consider him a top 10 quarterback in the NFL; but when compared to arguably the best quarterback in the game, Tom Brady, his numbers are disgustingly awful. And the worst part is that for his last 6 years he's had one of the top 5 defenses in the NFL. He wins a respectable amount of games but he can never manage to get over the hump and really cement his name as a top flight NFL quarterback. In any other line of work, he would be lucky just to keep his job; so since when has mediocrity and substandard performance warranted outlandish pay raises?

The top 5 contracts in the NFL belong to 4 of the top 5 quarterbacks in the league, and Joe Flacco. But the one thing all 5 of those guys have in common is a Lombardi Trophy. The next two largest contracts belong to Tony Romo and one Jay Cutler. One guy spends all his time trying to be a scratch golfer, the other spends his time making cameo appearances on the hit show The League on FXX. And both have a knack for wasting seasons in the waining moments of the final game.

Maybe I went into the wrong profession, if I knew I could make $100 million being average at football I would have tried playing it in my youth. Yes, Cutler has one of the strongest arms in the league, but he doesn't have that killer instinct, he can't flip that switch when the game is on the line to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. If you can get paid solely on potential I should have been a millionaire years ago, but who am I to knock his hustle, more power to you Mr. Cutler you just committed highway robbery.

Thursday, January 2, 2014

Can Johnny Football Survive in the NFL

Johnny Manziel continues to dazzle on Saturdays for the Texas A&M Aggies. In his two seasons as the starting quarterback he has set records for offensive production, all while joining the toughest conference in all of college football, the SEC. As a first year starter, after red shirting his freshman year behind current Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Manziel took the nation by storm with his highlight reel playmaking ability. He handely broke the SEC total yards record set by Cam Newton three years earlier during his own Heisman winning season, becoming the first freshman to win a Heisman, and turned around a mediocre football team into a team that was capable of challenging for a national championship. And he did all of this without the help of a defense, which forced him into shootouts against some of the best defenses in the country. But the question still remains, will it translate to the pros?

Playing for a team that consistently allowed the opposition to score with moderate ease naturally bloated most of Manziel's stats. Finding themselves down often he was forced to make a lot of big plays rather then being able to rely on a balanced attack that would hold onto secured leads. And with the ability to pick a handful of subpar teams for the early games in the season, he was able to destroy bad teams and pad his stats.

The concern came, both seasons, against LSU. The Tigers are a team with a plethora of NFL caliber talent on the defensive side of the ball, more so then any other team that Manziel's Aggies faced in his two years in school. Both games against LSU were his worst game of his career. This season Texas A&M was average over 500 ypg and close to 50 ppg heading into the LSU matchup, they left Death Valley with a 34 to 10 loss that looked a lot uglier then the final score shows. Johnny Football was a dismal 16 for 41 passing with 2 interceptions while taking 2 sacks.

He relies on his speed and ability to escape pressure in order to make big plays out of blown coverages by the defense. However, when faced with a defense faster then any he has seen prior, he shrunk to the challenge and his numbers reflect it. While LSU may be the toughest and fastest defense he has played, they are nothing compared to the fast paced hard hitting NFL defenses he will be pitted against in the future. And at, generously, 6'1 and 205 pounds, with his playing style of holding onto the ball until the very last second, he could have a very short career.

And that is my other concern, while you can stumble into great plays against talented but undisciplined kids in college, he won't be able to make those same plays at the next level. He will take too many hits and throw too many ill-advised passes because in his mind he is a super star and nothing can stop him.

Statistically, and in terms of playing style he compares very favorably to Doug Flutie who managed to have a long 12 year career as a 5'10 mobile quarterback. Both won a Heisman, both made some of the most iconic plays in the history of the sport. Flutie wasn't drafted until the 11th round of the 1985 draft a year after winning the award for best college player in the country, Manziel is being talked about as a potential #1 overall pick.

Manziel received his fame to early, and let it get to his head, constantly being in the news for drunken antics and fights at parties, all while underage. He thinks he is untouchable, and is constantly given second chances and having the rules altered for him or seeing his coaches turn a blind eye. It may have worked for him in college, but when he tries to take the corner on his first scrambling pass attempt in the NFL and gets lit up by a 340 pound behemoth, the question will be how many more of those hits can he take before it kills him.


Monday, December 9, 2013

Tony Romo, it's not your fault

The Bears just shellacked the Cowboys tonight on Monday Night Football, Some might say it was their playing up for the retirement of legendary bear Mike Ditka's jersey #89, but I say the Cowboys just plain stink.

Tony Romo historically has been awful in the month of December, blowing games and squandering chances at playoff runs every single season. His record in December and January is now an embarrassing 12 and 17. However there is some tiny glimmer of hope he can take from this most recent debacle, it wasn't his fault they lost this game. 


Usually he is making some bonehead mistake turning the ball over in a critical situation with the game on the line, but that wasn't the case tonight in Chicago. Yes he had a very eyebrowing raising stat line of just over 100 yards and 3 touchdowns, but the key is he had 0 turnovers. The Cowboys ran the ball up and down the field on Chicago with no issue in the first half, but Chicago had too many quick strikes and the lead ballooned forcing the game plan to change for Dallas. 

Being down by 21 for most of the game forced their hand and Demarco Murray who had 100 yards rushing in the first half ended up with only 45 in the 2nd half as they had to abandon the rushing attack that was their only sustainable form of offense. The Offensive line was horrendous in pass blocking situations finding Romo rushed multiple times and sacked twice. 

The other main factor for why this wasn't Tony's fault was the embarrassing play of the Dallas defense. They have been one of, if not thee worst pass defense in the NFL this season getting ripped apart by Josh McCown for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns. When your defense can't stop anyone and continuously finds you playing catch up, you're not likely to win many games.

And the Bears have been just as bad this season which makes this convincing defeat that much worse. I put 100% of this defeat, and this entire season, on Jerry Jones. He spends more time talking to the media and trying to play God in his super stadium, then he does surrounding his unit of very good star players with a supporting cast worthy of their talent level. When you care more about your image then you do about your team, you are going nowhere fast. But cheer up Tony, this one isn't on you.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Jacoby Jumps Ship



Jacoby Ellsbury has done the unthinkable. The flashy 2 time World Champion center fielder who has spent his entire professional career with the Boston Red Sox has joined the Evil Empire. Most Sox fans are at arms over this, comparing this treacherous act to that of Johnny Damon. The big difference being Damon was only a Red Sox for a handful of years and wasn't a product of the system but just a nice free agent addition after spending his time in Oakland. Ellsbury on the other hand has been groomed into the player he has become by the hands of the oft overlooked minor league staff of the Pawtucket Red Sox and Portland Sea Dogs.

Sure talent is involved in becoming who he is today, but you can't overlook the track record of the Red Sox farm system, producing countless stars and stalwarts to the big league club like Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester and so many others. This is why the big news of yet another big time Red Sox switching sides in the most hated rivalry in the history of the sport was such a stinging blow, at least until I thought about it.

Ellsbury is set to turn 31 in September, meaning he is under contract until the age of 37, with an option for an 8th year. Maybe in hockey this type of deal would work, or as a multi dimensional threat the likes of a Derek Jeter, but Jacoby's game is predicated on speed. He wants to get on base and he wants to run. That will work now, but when he's 36? He isnt going to be stealing 50+ bags a season in his mid to late 30s. And he is one of the streakiest hitters I've ever seen, going cold for weeks at a time. Now when hes on, hes on, and he can change the outcome of a game as witnessed in the post season run made last season in Boston.

Yet here in lies the problem, only 3 times in his 7 year career has he played more then 140 games in a season, the last being his MVP runner up season in 2011. That was also the only season he has been named an All Star. Is a 1 time All Star who is constantly plagued by injuries and known to run himself through walls, or Adrian Beltre, worth 153 million dollars for 7 years? Sure if he can stay healthy and productive for even 6 of those 7 years its absolutely worth it, but that's a very big IF.

Not only is his over under for games missed this season in the 80 range, but the Yankees are throwing too much money at hit or miss injury prone guys in their 30s, without having a starting rotation. They must not have watched the playoffs because it was evident that pitching wins games and yet they continue to hand money away while ignoring the most pressing issue on their team. 

CC Sabathia. Ivan Nova. David Phelps. Michael Pineda, and Adam Warren. This is the Yankees projected starting rotation next year. They also lost their best set up man in the bullpen as he has moved into the closer role to replace the future hall of famer Mariano Rivera. But instead the Yankees have given 3 players (Ellsbury, Brian Mccann, and Derek Jeter) a combined 250 Million Dollars in contracts, and are reportedly still interested in signing Robinson Cano for around 180 Million. And who knows how much they'll have to pay the suspended A-Roid. That's 5 guys, only 4 of which can actually play, taking up nearly half a billion dollars on their books. 

Hopefully it works out for them because it's not as much fun beating on the Yankees when they are terrible, but on the other hand they never seem to learn that you can't buy championships anymore. Baseball is a long season, just buying the best players doesn't guarantee you anything, especially when the players you keep paying are injured more then they play, to each his own right now we are World Series Champs, and when Ellsbury returns to Fenway he will hear a cacophony of boos unrivaled by Wes Welker and Ray Allen combined



Tuesday, November 5, 2013

The Brad Stevens Era

Now for those of you who don't know me, I bleed green. I have a passion for all sports New England but I have always felt a special connection to the Celtics. However I don't let this passion blind me, I am an informed viewer and it is because of this that I had only slight resignations with trading KG and Pierce, the cornerstone of our organization since I was 8 years old.

I know keeping them would have kept us in NBA purgatory as a middle of the pack team so we did what we had to do and got the most for them that we could before they became useless, this isn't my problem. And neither is the hiring of Brad Stevens who I think with some time will be one of the top coaches in the league.


My issue is and always has been with Danny Ainge. He's the type of GM to make one or 2 good moves every 5 years with a lot of very questionable decisions in between. One of the biggest mistakes I thought he made in recent years was drafting Marshon Brooks just to trade him to the Nets for JaJuan Johnson. Marshon looked like a perfect complimentary player coming off the bench to spell Pierce and Ray Allen playing in front of the same crowd he dazzled for the previous 4 years while playing at Providence College. He then landed in the doghouse in Jersey and fell into obscurity as they added Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace trying to make their push for a championship.

All the while JaJuan Johnson has done literally nothing in the NBA over the course of his career. His highlight is being sent away for Courtney Lee, which is another move by Ainge that has not panned out. But Brooks got a second chance, much like Jeff Green to return to the team that drafted him as he was a throw in for the Pierce deal, and what do they do... They don't let him play. I would understand if the team had a winning chemistry and he was just at the bottom of the depth chart behind some superstars but thats not the case. The people perched in front of him are Avery Bradley, the aforementioned Courtney Lee, Jordan Crawford, and Keith Bogans. Really? Those 4 guys are who you want in the game when you absolutely need a basket... guys with below average offensive games and a tendency to turn it over when the games on the line?

Brooks is a bonafide scorer as proven by his entire collegiate career, so why not let him play. Whats the worst that could happen, you keep losing? The guy can light it up for a team that has a lot of guys too willing to pass up the shot. And for the life of me if Ainge trades Rondo or doesn't give that man a max contract I might have to switch teams. The man can ball, point blank. He is a stat machine and a damn near top 3 point guard in the NBA... DONT TRY TO SAY WESTBROOK IS BETTER.

My other issue is even if we do lose the most games this season, which it really looks like we might, that doesn't guarantee us anything more then a ticket into the Andrew Wiggins Raffle. The NBA lottery system is a joke that always seems to be marred by controversy and hardly ever gives the worst team the top pick. Not that I condone tanking but if it works in the NFL NHL and MLB why not use it in the NBA. We saw this all to similar story in 2007 when we won 24 which was worst in the East and only better then the Memphis Grizzlies yet we got stuck with the #5 pick taking us right out of the Kevin Durant sweepstakes. Granted a higher pick would have never resulted in the trades for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, but who's to say we wouldn't be even better with a combination of Rondo Durant and Paul Pierce.

The NBA has a flawed system that is very easily manipulated, as seen by the Cavaliers getting 2 picks in the top 4 after seeing Lebron take home his 2nd championship since leaving Cleveland. I can give up thousands of conspiracy theories on how David Stern caters to certain teams while turning a blind eye to others but that would be just that, theories. Luckily Stern is gone in a few months so he wont have his fingers over another championship for whichever star he is favoring at the time.

Either way, basketball season is upon us and its a joyous time for everyone, unless you don't like Lebron in which case I'd suggest you stay away from Sportscenter